Animation, sequels and super hero films: A bullish forecast from Nomura

Hollywood superhero films, movie sequels and other animated movies will continue to hit cinema screens because of the comparatively high acceptance they receive in today’s markets globally, is the belief of veteran Nomura Securities media and entertainment analyst Anthony DiClement.


While speaking to deadline.com, he said that he expects international box office receipts for US studios such as Disney, Time Warner and Fox and others to climb 5.5 per cent per year to reach $57.6 billion by 2022.

In the 10 largest markets all over the world, sequels account for 76 of the 107 top-grossing films in the last 12 years.

Animated films and action movies are also far more profitable genres for producers than drama or comedy movies. Between 2004 and 2013, animated films churned out an average gross margin of 52 per cent on an average, while action movies had average gross margins of 40 per cent, drama had 30 per cent and comedy 22 per cent.

DiClemete said that overseas revenue for production houses, like Disney, Time Warner and Fox, are expected to rise considerably next year because of the lineup of movies that they are expected to release by then.

Disney has seven movies lined up for 2015, including Star Wars: Episode VII, while Time Warner has eight of them, including The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies. Fox is also prepared with 12 movies for next year, including the third edition of DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda.

DiClemente also believed that there is a lot of scope in BRIC countries Brazil, Russia, India and China in terms of market reach and return. He said that countries like the ones mentioned above can also raise ticket prices without harming viewer sentiment. Ticket prices in India average Rs 40 a piece as against Rs 500-odd in the US.

In addition to this, the high-growth BRIC countries have an average of 0.13 screens for every 10,000 people as opposed to 1.26 screens in the US.

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